2009 NFL Draft - Top Five by Position - Part 1
Here is my top five by position for the 2009 Draft – I’m not going to try and predict the first 5 off the board at each position, but will give you who I think are the top 5 in terms of their ability to play in the NFL. Some players might be top 10 picks, others second day picks. I’ll also give my opinion on some second day value, potential free agent finds and those who I am unsure about.
Quarterback
Those in need of a QB this year face the decision on whether to stake their franchise’s future on a Junior QB – the stat to be aware of is that 62% of QB’s coming out of college early fail in the NFL.
1. Mark Sanchez – USC. This is really close between Sanchez and Stafford. I’m going to give the edge to Sanchez because he looks more consistent than Stafford. His question marks are experience (only started 16 games) and durability (didn’t make it through his one full season as a starter without injury) – positives are superb leadership and no real weaknesses in his game.
2. Matthew Stafford – Georgia. The thing that drops Stafford to 2 is that after 3 years as a starter he is still extremely streaky. His final game as a Bulldog is a perfect example – a very poor first half followed by a red hot second half. Has a golden arm, but thus thinks he can thread the needle – DB’s in the NFL will close and make a play on the ball far more than college. More risk than Sanchez.
3. Josh Freeman – Kansas State. Has the arm to make all the throws which will see him taken in the first round. Needs to take some heat off some of his shorter throws – has the tools but not a sure thing.
4. Pat White – West Virginia – QB/Athlete. Not a traditional QB, but has found himself coming into the NFL at the right time – wildcat time! Initially he will give an imaginative team a great weapon – he can pass (better than he’s given credit for) and run – a superb athlete, great kid and will make some plays as a rookie. Could potentially be a starting QB down the road, but will need to improve his accuracy.
5. John Parker Wilson – Alabama. Has a chance if he’s drafted by the right team. Can’t make the deep post throw – his ball hangs far too much. However, he’s cool under pressure and accurate. West coast offense only.
Second Day Value
Tom Brandstater – Fresno State. 6-5, 220 – prototypical QB size and arm strength. Too inconsistent, but has the tools to suggest he could make it.
Free Agent Find
Drew Willy – Buffalo. Doesn’t have the greatest arm, but helped turn Buffalo around – strong mentally and just wins.
Buyer Beware
Nate Davis – Ball State. Came out as a junior after struggling in his final two games – interception and fumble problems – ideally needed that extra year.
Running Back
A very good class this year, some top backs with plenty of value to be had on the second day as well.
1. Donald Brown – Connecticut. Can’t find a weakness with this kid – top player and great character – future great.
2. Knowshon Moreno – Georgia. Slightly flashier than Brown – but will he be able to make some of those highlight reel runs in the NFL? Breakaway threat.
3. LeSean McCoy – Pittsburgh. There’s talk he may have needed the extra year to mature off the field – but on the field he’s ready – patient, nice burst and very quick.
4. Rashad Jennings – Liberty. Ran for over 400 yards as a freshman at Pittsburgh, so has proven top college production. Tough inside runner who has a nice burst.
5. Gartrell Johnson – Colorado State. This young man will be a late second day pick, but I think he’s an ideal zone blocking system type runner – like he said at the Shrine Game “one cut and go, no messing”.
Second Day Value
Glen Coffee – Alabama. Very little fanfare after coming out early – has a nice burst. Also a mention for Ian Johnson – just seems to make plays.
Free Agent Find
Josh Vaughan – Richmond. Tim Hightower’s former backup – started slowly as “the man” in his senior year, but finished strongly – tough inside runner.
Buyer Beware
Chris Wells – Ohio State. Yes, he’s 235 and runs a 4.5 40 – yes, he’s been productive – but he’s a big back who runs a little too upright for me and most importantly just doesn’t relish contact. Hobbled throughout his junior year – including the example of his final college game and what really made my mind up about him. In the Fiesta Bowl he limped out of the game twice in the first half and was hurt in the second half missing the 4th quarter of a close game completely. Adrian Peterson was a durability risk, but that was partly because he threw his body around recklessly – Wells doesn’t and that concerns me.
Full Back
All of these guys will be second day picks as the position isn’t valued that much on draft day – not real stand outs this year, but some solid guys. A top three for this position.
1. Tony Fiammetta – Syracuse. Throwback FB – very nice lead blocker and capable enough receiver.
2. Conredge Collins – Pittsburgh. Possibly a little undersized at 224 lbs – but a very good lead blocker for McCoy at Pitt.
3. Eric Kettani – Navy. Service commitments will mean he probably goes undrafted, but might just make it once those commitments end.
Free Agent Find
Mark Hafner – Houston. Played TE in college, but at 6-2 projects to more of a FB/HB type of role – excellent receiver, could feature in some wildcat type formations.
Wide Receiver
Some great athletes in this class, but do they have enough to make it as WR’s in the NFL?
1. Michael Crabtree – Texas Tech. Calvin Johnson type receiver – soft hands, catches the ball away from his body. Will need to learn NFL route tree. Have heard some rumblings about off the field red flags and the durability question, but has top ability.
2. Jeremy Maclin – Missouri. Explosive in the open field – top returner. Again, questions about route running after playing in the spread in college, but ran more than screens and the like in college so I’m happy that this home run threat can be a top player.
3. Jarett Dillard – Rice. Will be drafted on the second day because of his size/speed (5’10” – 4.5 40). Has great hands and most importantly superb speed out of his breaks – has a nice vertical leap also. Poor man’s Greg Jennings.
4. Derrick Williams – Penn State. Used in many ways at Penn State, so another who will benefit from the wildcat trend. Solid receiver, good returner – only 4.65 speed, but a very good football player.
5. Mike Wallace – Mississippi – a poor man’s Jeremy Maclin! Top speed – superb kick returner – makes his decision and hits the hole at full speed (direct). Good deep threat with solid hands – makes the over the shoulder catch very well.
Second Day Value
Quan Cosby – Texas. Over aged, only 5-9 – but just makes plays.
Free Agent Find
Quentin Chaney – Oklahoma. Never quite reached his potential at Oklahoma – being the 4th WR this year. Has enough quickness to get open and has very soft hands. Worth an extended look.
Buyer Beware
Darrius Heyward-Bey – Maryland. 4.25 40 – but doesn’t always show up enough. Question route running ability – tended to catch screens and not much else. Might be a typical Al Davis pick. Also a mention for Percy Harvin – a strong runner after the catch, will break tackles as well as out run people BUT he just can’t stay healthy and he has some off the field red flags.
I just want to throw in a mention for Dante Love of Ball State here. An exiting smaller receiver prospect who hurt his neck this year and thus is unable to play football again. Not only did I enjoy watching him play, I also thought he handled his injury with class and was deservedly given a chance on the Ball State coaching staff.
Tight End
1. Brandon Pettigrew – Oklahoma State. Superb blocker. Better receiver than given credit for – very soft hands – just not a top deep threat. One off the field red flag.
2. Shawn Nelson – Southern Miss. Has very soft hands and fast enough to get deep. Doesn’t have great size (240 lbs) as a blocker, but does enough.
3. James Casey – Rice. Catches everything thrown at him – extremely versatile, will be used in the wildcat. Also could be a long snapper to save a roster spot. Played baseball for a bit, so is over aged – but a very good prospect.
4. Jared Cook – South Carolina. Flashes good hands, but it’s his athletic ability that excites – very dangerous after the catch.
5. Davon Drew – East Carolina. Possibly more of a HB, but has good hands and looks dangerous after the catch. A former QB, so he knows where the weaknesses in coverage are.
Second Day Value
Kory Sperry – Colorado State. Very soft hands and good enough athlete – potential HB. Durability concerns (2007 knee injury).
Free Agent Find
Bear Pascoe – Fresno State. 4.96 40 might see him go undrafted. Decent blocker – crafty receiver – can find the soft spot in zones and has decent hands. Useful 2nd TE type for a team like Pittsburgh.
Buyer Beware
Travis Beckum – Wisconsin and Chase Coffman – Missouri. Coffman probably has the softest hands of any of the TE’s this year – but both just cannot stay healthy.
Continue to part two:
http://forum.nfluk.com/blog.php?b=782
Quarterback
Those in need of a QB this year face the decision on whether to stake their franchise’s future on a Junior QB – the stat to be aware of is that 62% of QB’s coming out of college early fail in the NFL.
1. Mark Sanchez – USC. This is really close between Sanchez and Stafford. I’m going to give the edge to Sanchez because he looks more consistent than Stafford. His question marks are experience (only started 16 games) and durability (didn’t make it through his one full season as a starter without injury) – positives are superb leadership and no real weaknesses in his game.
2. Matthew Stafford – Georgia. The thing that drops Stafford to 2 is that after 3 years as a starter he is still extremely streaky. His final game as a Bulldog is a perfect example – a very poor first half followed by a red hot second half. Has a golden arm, but thus thinks he can thread the needle – DB’s in the NFL will close and make a play on the ball far more than college. More risk than Sanchez.
3. Josh Freeman – Kansas State. Has the arm to make all the throws which will see him taken in the first round. Needs to take some heat off some of his shorter throws – has the tools but not a sure thing.
4. Pat White – West Virginia – QB/Athlete. Not a traditional QB, but has found himself coming into the NFL at the right time – wildcat time! Initially he will give an imaginative team a great weapon – he can pass (better than he’s given credit for) and run – a superb athlete, great kid and will make some plays as a rookie. Could potentially be a starting QB down the road, but will need to improve his accuracy.
5. John Parker Wilson – Alabama. Has a chance if he’s drafted by the right team. Can’t make the deep post throw – his ball hangs far too much. However, he’s cool under pressure and accurate. West coast offense only.
Second Day Value
Tom Brandstater – Fresno State. 6-5, 220 – prototypical QB size and arm strength. Too inconsistent, but has the tools to suggest he could make it.
Free Agent Find
Drew Willy – Buffalo. Doesn’t have the greatest arm, but helped turn Buffalo around – strong mentally and just wins.
Buyer Beware
Nate Davis – Ball State. Came out as a junior after struggling in his final two games – interception and fumble problems – ideally needed that extra year.
Running Back
A very good class this year, some top backs with plenty of value to be had on the second day as well.
1. Donald Brown – Connecticut. Can’t find a weakness with this kid – top player and great character – future great.
2. Knowshon Moreno – Georgia. Slightly flashier than Brown – but will he be able to make some of those highlight reel runs in the NFL? Breakaway threat.
3. LeSean McCoy – Pittsburgh. There’s talk he may have needed the extra year to mature off the field – but on the field he’s ready – patient, nice burst and very quick.
4. Rashad Jennings – Liberty. Ran for over 400 yards as a freshman at Pittsburgh, so has proven top college production. Tough inside runner who has a nice burst.
5. Gartrell Johnson – Colorado State. This young man will be a late second day pick, but I think he’s an ideal zone blocking system type runner – like he said at the Shrine Game “one cut and go, no messing”.
Second Day Value
Glen Coffee – Alabama. Very little fanfare after coming out early – has a nice burst. Also a mention for Ian Johnson – just seems to make plays.
Free Agent Find
Josh Vaughan – Richmond. Tim Hightower’s former backup – started slowly as “the man” in his senior year, but finished strongly – tough inside runner.
Buyer Beware
Chris Wells – Ohio State. Yes, he’s 235 and runs a 4.5 40 – yes, he’s been productive – but he’s a big back who runs a little too upright for me and most importantly just doesn’t relish contact. Hobbled throughout his junior year – including the example of his final college game and what really made my mind up about him. In the Fiesta Bowl he limped out of the game twice in the first half and was hurt in the second half missing the 4th quarter of a close game completely. Adrian Peterson was a durability risk, but that was partly because he threw his body around recklessly – Wells doesn’t and that concerns me.
Full Back
All of these guys will be second day picks as the position isn’t valued that much on draft day – not real stand outs this year, but some solid guys. A top three for this position.
1. Tony Fiammetta – Syracuse. Throwback FB – very nice lead blocker and capable enough receiver.
2. Conredge Collins – Pittsburgh. Possibly a little undersized at 224 lbs – but a very good lead blocker for McCoy at Pitt.
3. Eric Kettani – Navy. Service commitments will mean he probably goes undrafted, but might just make it once those commitments end.
Free Agent Find
Mark Hafner – Houston. Played TE in college, but at 6-2 projects to more of a FB/HB type of role – excellent receiver, could feature in some wildcat type formations.
Wide Receiver
Some great athletes in this class, but do they have enough to make it as WR’s in the NFL?
1. Michael Crabtree – Texas Tech. Calvin Johnson type receiver – soft hands, catches the ball away from his body. Will need to learn NFL route tree. Have heard some rumblings about off the field red flags and the durability question, but has top ability.
2. Jeremy Maclin – Missouri. Explosive in the open field – top returner. Again, questions about route running after playing in the spread in college, but ran more than screens and the like in college so I’m happy that this home run threat can be a top player.
3. Jarett Dillard – Rice. Will be drafted on the second day because of his size/speed (5’10” – 4.5 40). Has great hands and most importantly superb speed out of his breaks – has a nice vertical leap also. Poor man’s Greg Jennings.
4. Derrick Williams – Penn State. Used in many ways at Penn State, so another who will benefit from the wildcat trend. Solid receiver, good returner – only 4.65 speed, but a very good football player.
5. Mike Wallace – Mississippi – a poor man’s Jeremy Maclin! Top speed – superb kick returner – makes his decision and hits the hole at full speed (direct). Good deep threat with solid hands – makes the over the shoulder catch very well.
Second Day Value
Quan Cosby – Texas. Over aged, only 5-9 – but just makes plays.
Free Agent Find
Quentin Chaney – Oklahoma. Never quite reached his potential at Oklahoma – being the 4th WR this year. Has enough quickness to get open and has very soft hands. Worth an extended look.
Buyer Beware
Darrius Heyward-Bey – Maryland. 4.25 40 – but doesn’t always show up enough. Question route running ability – tended to catch screens and not much else. Might be a typical Al Davis pick. Also a mention for Percy Harvin – a strong runner after the catch, will break tackles as well as out run people BUT he just can’t stay healthy and he has some off the field red flags.
I just want to throw in a mention for Dante Love of Ball State here. An exiting smaller receiver prospect who hurt his neck this year and thus is unable to play football again. Not only did I enjoy watching him play, I also thought he handled his injury with class and was deservedly given a chance on the Ball State coaching staff.
Tight End
1. Brandon Pettigrew – Oklahoma State. Superb blocker. Better receiver than given credit for – very soft hands – just not a top deep threat. One off the field red flag.
2. Shawn Nelson – Southern Miss. Has very soft hands and fast enough to get deep. Doesn’t have great size (240 lbs) as a blocker, but does enough.
3. James Casey – Rice. Catches everything thrown at him – extremely versatile, will be used in the wildcat. Also could be a long snapper to save a roster spot. Played baseball for a bit, so is over aged – but a very good prospect.
4. Jared Cook – South Carolina. Flashes good hands, but it’s his athletic ability that excites – very dangerous after the catch.
5. Davon Drew – East Carolina. Possibly more of a HB, but has good hands and looks dangerous after the catch. A former QB, so he knows where the weaknesses in coverage are.
Second Day Value
Kory Sperry – Colorado State. Very soft hands and good enough athlete – potential HB. Durability concerns (2007 knee injury).
Free Agent Find
Bear Pascoe – Fresno State. 4.96 40 might see him go undrafted. Decent blocker – crafty receiver – can find the soft spot in zones and has decent hands. Useful 2nd TE type for a team like Pittsburgh.
Buyer Beware
Travis Beckum – Wisconsin and Chase Coffman – Missouri. Coffman probably has the softest hands of any of the TE’s this year – but both just cannot stay healthy.
Continue to part two:
http://forum.nfluk.com/blog.php?b=782
Total Comments 3
Comments
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Nice read duesouth and well deserving of winning the blog comp IMO.
I agree about Nate Davis, not to be cruel but he has some learning problems and I think that'll put off some teams. However, I would have Rhett Bomar in the top 5, just got a gut feeling he's going to be the best QB out of this draft when it's all said and done. |
Posted 14-Apr-2009 at 11:09 AM by Gman84
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Thanks for the kind words Gman.
I didn't go for Rhett Bomar because I'm not sold on his accuracy. He completed 56% of his passes last season, not a shocking number but it's at a lower level of competition, so I would have expected him to stand out more on that stat - he's got a good arm though and it will be him or Stephen McGee (Texas A&M) who will probably be the first senior QB off the board. McGee seems to be rising and could sneak into the 3rd round because he will be able to do the Wildcat thing with his athletic ability. I guess my gut just liked Wilson a little more - a different kind of QB, I think he's got more chance in the right system - Bomar is a little more boom or bust. |
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Posted 14-Apr-2009 at 01:33 PM by duesouth10
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Excellent job
 Congrats on the win!  |
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Posted 05-May-2009 at 05:44 PM by PhoenixFireBlade
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Recent Blog Entries by duesouth10
- NFC West Draft Review (15-May-2009)
- NFC South Draft Review (15-May-2009)
- NFC North Draft Review (15-May-2009)
- NFC East Draft Review (15-May-2009)
- AFC West Draft Review (14-May-2009)
