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The Winningest Team In The Past 11 Years - Brief Statistical View
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towen5
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Default The Winningest Team In The Past 11 Years - Brief Statistical View - 29.10.2008, 05:25 AM

Note: past 11 years - sorry for the confusion.

In a thread a person mentioned merging the conferences and creating two divisions with promotion and relegation based on teams performances over the past 5-10 years.

Now obviously this idea was slated and shot out of the water, but it got me thinking.

How have teams been doing over the past 11 years? Would there be any surprising data?

I started by compiling a spreadsheet database of win-lose records for each team for the last 11 years. I then highlighted playoff appearances and super bowl wins. I then calculated a total win-loss record for the year and used this to work out a win percentage (this meant i could compare teams who had played different amounts of games ie. Browns and Texans)

This winning percentage then allowed me to rank the teams.

Here is a basic form what i found:

Rank---Winning %---Playoff Apps---Sbowl Apps

1. Patriots - 67.04% (8 p/o Apps) (3 sb wins)
2. Packers - 62.50% (8 p/o Apps)
3. Colts - 61.36% (8 p/o Apps) (1 sb win)
4. Broncos - 60.89% (8 p/o Apps) (2 sb wins)
5. Steelers - 60.51% (8 p/o Apps) (1 sb win)
6. Jaguars - 56.81% (8 p/o Apps)
7. Titans - 56.25% (8 p/o Apps)
8. Seahawks - 55.68% (8 p/o Apps)
9. Eagles - 55.39% (8 p/o Apps)
10. Bucs - 54.54% (7 p/o Apps) (1 sb win)
11. Vikings - 54.54% (5 Playoff Apps)
12. Giants - 53.12% (6 p/o Apps) (1 sb win)
13. Chiefs - 52.84% (3 p/o Apps)
14. Ravens - 52.55% (4 p/o Apps) (1 sb win)
15. Jets - 51.70% (5 p/o Apps)
16. Rams - 51.13% (5 p/o Apps) (1 sb win)
17. Dolphins - 50.56% (5 p/o Apps)
18. Cowboys - 48.86% (5 p/o Apps)
19. Redskins - 46.87% (3 p/o Apps)
20. 49ers - 46.59% (4 p/o Apps)
21. Falcons - 46.30% (3 p/o Apps)
22. Chargers - 46.02% (3 p/o Apps)
23. Bills - 45.45% (2 p/o Apps)
24. Bears - 44.88% (3 p/o Apps)
25. Panthers - 44.31% (2 p/o Apps)
26. Saints - 43.75% (2 p/o Apps)
27. Raiders - 40.90% (3 p/o Apps)
28. Bengals - 38.63% (1 p/o Apps)
29. Lions - 35.22% (2 p/o Apps)
30. Cardinals - 35.22% (1 p/o Apps)
31. Browns - 34.72% (1 p/o Apps)
32. Texans - 33.33%

NFC ranks total - 280 - 48.93% (3 sb wins)

AFC ranks total - 248 - 51.36% (8 sb wins)

Obviously the lower the number the better the teams are as a whole in that conference.

Issues with the study

Firstly i would like to state there were a few issues that affected the quality of the data.

Obviously the Texans were formed in 2002 but because it was based on win percentage that didn't really matter. The same goes for the Browns missing '97 and '98.

I decided to include Tennessee Oilers as part of Tennessee Titans stats and also included all the stats from the Seahawks prior to their shift to the NFC in 2001. This therefore may affect the outcome.

I decided that tied games would count as 0.5 win 0.5 loss.

10 Key Results

1. There seems to be a massive gap with the 'Top 5' teams compared to the rest of the league. They relatively seem to have dominated the last 11 years, especially New England.

2. There are a few teams that are surprisingly high, would you say that the Packers are the 2nd best team in the NFL? (based on empirical data)

3. A few are also surprisingly low. Would you rate the Cowboys as a mid rate team?

4. Is it a surprise over the past 11 years the AFC has been a better conference? Also, would you have guessed that over the past 11 years the NFC as a whole has lost over half their games.

5. The Texans are the only team in the league to not reach the playoffs in the last 11 years. Also, only 2 teams have won the Super Bowl more than once over this period. This demonstrates the parity of the NFL.

7. Over the past 11 years we have seen 16-0 (Patriots), 15-1 (Steelers), 1-15 (Miami, Panthers & Chargers)

8. The lowest winning record of a Super Bowl winner during this period was last years Giants at 10-6.

9. 5 teams in the AFC won more than 100 games (1 with 99) - Broncos, Colts, Jaguars, Pats & Steelers (Titans), while only the Packers managed this for the NFC.

10. The AFC won 97 more games than the NFC over this period.

This was my first foray into statistical research based on the NFL so im aware that its quite simple stats but i would love any feedback as it will help me improve.

Thanks for being so patient, i have added an attachment containing my spreadsheet in a compressed file for anyone that wants to check it out.
Attached Files
File Type: zip last 10 years of football.zip (6.9 KB, 12 views)

Last edited by towen5; 11.12.2008 at 02:59 AM.. Reason: 11 years!
   
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Swervedriver
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Default 29.10.2008, 05:43 AM

this is actually over 11 years!!!
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towen5
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Default 29.10.2008, 05:59 AM

i realised that as i was doing it but i went with 1997-2007, which i know i know in the NFL schedule is 11 years...Edit coming up!
   
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Jammin Jaguar
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Default 29.10.2008, 10:39 AM

Some good, intriguing information there Towen5. Well done. If only the Jaguars could have a (1 SB win) next to their name.
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BigFishyBob
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Default 29.10.2008, 11:10 AM

Should you not include something about a superbowl appearance when the team loses!?!
As that is still a post-season game so should be counted somewhere.
   
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Default 29.10.2008, 11:29 AM

Good stuff, Packers was the most interesting for me, surprised they have that good a record.
   
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Default 29.10.2008, 01:31 PM

Good work - interesting stuff.

Didn't the Steelers win SBXL after a 9-7 regular season record?
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Default 29.10.2008, 01:34 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by nfl_harwich_rob View Post
Good work - interesting stuff.

Didn't the Steelers win SBXL after a 9-7 regular season record?
No, for some reason I thought the same when I saw it, but they were 11-5.
   
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Monie
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Default 29.10.2008, 01:50 PM

The Vikings aso went 15-1
   
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Default 29.10.2008, 02:30 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul31 View Post
No, for some reason I thought the same when I saw it, but they were 11-5.
Have since checked it. Cheers. My bad.
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