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  #1  
Old 17.02.2017, 10:29 PM
TheBigEgg TheBigEgg is offline
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Default Bears QB Situation in 2017

Sorry if this is a long winded reply but hopefully I might make enough sense for it to be worthwhile

Cutler is as good as gone I think. You can make arguments that we may not be able to better the position by getting rid of him but lets be honest, its not worked out as well as anyone had hoped and by parting ways we'll open up even more salary cap room and allow ourselves to address other important positions (Secondary anyone???)

Now for the options going forward.... I see 2 real options here. 1 - We trade for someone or 2 - We draft someone early and bring in a serviceable FA QB to hold the fort for a season or 2 as we nurture our future QB. (OK there is option 3 of finding the long term starter in FA but that seems unlikely. Cousins probably won't leave Washington and if he does he's likely to follow Shanahan to SF. Glennon you can argue for but lets be frank, he's played ok but he hasn't started in quite some time. If Tyrod Taylor gets cut then I guess he could make this a more viable option. Also I guess if Landry Jones is a UFA not an RFA as I think he might be then he's an option).

In option 1 you have to look at the possible trade options... All the talk is of trading for Jimmy Garroppolo from New England but there is a few real sticking points with this. Firstly, New England are in no dire need to trade him. Sure he probably walks away for a big contract next off season but right now he offers an excellent insurance policy should Brady get injured next year and they probably still stand a good chance at a Superbowl run. Unless of course they REALLY like Jacoby Brissett? Secondly if they do trade its likely the QB graveyard known as Cleveland will definitely make a run at him. Simply put, Pace isn't going to throw our 3rd overall pick to get Jimmy G but Cleveland have 2 1st rounders, they can throw the #12 pick overall at New England still pick up an impact player like Garrett at #1 . You also have to look at Jimmys small body of work, exceptional as it was, and the history of NE backups away from the Belichick bosom. That being said, I think I'd be happy if we threw the 2nd rounder to get him. I think he's probably a better QB at this stage than anyone leaving the draft.
The other trade option is Tony Romo. He wants to go to a winning franchise with a post season shot which puts us a way down the queue and , more importantly, he is worse than Jay at staying on the field.
AJ McCarron is getting a few mentions as a possible trade worthy player, and Landry Jones I think is an RFA so we could tender a higher offer than the Steelers to try and get him. Neither guy has done a lot wrong but I'll admit I'm not 100% sold on either option.

If we did go this route though I'd like us to bring back Barkley. He showed he's not the future QB of the franchise but he showed enough to suggest he could be a reliable back up should you need to call on him. I also think, regardless of how we play the starting situation, Connor Shaw will be back next year for camp at least, the coaches and management apparently loved what they saw of him before the leg break.

Option 2 - Draft our future guy. Well, whilst there is some undoubted talent this year at QB, I don't see any of them as a day 1 starter. I'd want them all to sit at least a year and learn the game. (Its worth pointing out that this was also my view on Dak last year and he defied my logic so I could easily be wrong). Heres my thoughts on a few of the major QB players in the draft.
Mitch Trubisky - Talented kid, could turn out to be the best of this class without doubt. All the tools are there. Problem being he has only 1 year of starting in college. His reads can be naive at times and I think he panics a little under pressure (Solomon Thomas had him panicking in the bowl game). I say he needs 2 seasons of sitting probably.
DeShone Kizer - Love his arm talent and he makes some awesome throws and reads at times. He is however erratic. He wasn't helped by being on a poor team of course but he, again, isn't great under pressure. I think he's probably closer to being ready than Mitch with a similar talent ceiling. Probably just needs to sit for a year.
DeShaun Watson - Not the best 2016 (except the championship game!) by his standards but he does look a solid prospect overall. Possibly the most pro ready? Some say Kizer but I lean toward Watson, he's been in the bigger games, faced borderline pro standards D's when playing Bama and done good things. I do think he can be a little careless though with the ball and that needs sorting out.
Pat Mahomes - Someone is going to reach for this kid. He has a cannon of an arm, great passion for the game and is apparently a superb leader. He's not always the most accurate and he will force throws when pressured. This however is the least of the problems with Pat. Texas Tech Air Raid offense is barely even a scheme let alone one anywhere near a pro system. He's going to need A LOT of teaching in terms of plays, reading D's, commanding a huddle... the works. Also holding the ball for up to 6 seconds waiting for your receivers to find space 40 yards downfield will generally get you creamed in the NFL.
Brad Kaaya - Talented and able but is so shaky under pressure its a genuine concern. Once seen at maybe the 2nd best QB in this draft, many places now think he may slip to the 3rd-4th round.
Davis Webb - Picking up steam among scouts lately but he's barely been a starter 5 minutes and he also comes from the same system that gave us a remarkably unpro ready Jared Goff. He'll need at least a year of sitting and learning. Even then I'm not convinced he'll be a long term starter in the league.
A wildcard choice... Nate Peterman - Generally seen as a backup in the pros by a lot of scouts, I actually find him intriguing. Pitt run a pro friendly offense. He has adequate, if less than spectacular physical skills, and he seems a smart leader. He'll likely not be a perennial Pro Bowler granted, but if the Bears want to run a more Run orientated offense (lets face it, we've generally been a better team when we have) I think he could be a little like Kyle Orton. Also worth noting, the Bears coaches had him at the Senior Bowl (where he was generally seen as the best QB there) so if we draft him, you can bet they really liked what they saw.

Draft any of these guys and we need caretaker to lead the team for a season or 2. My preferred choice would be to find a way to bring Hoyer back. He was solid for us, kept mistakes to a minimum. Whilst he didn't exactly put us in consistent positions to win, he sure as hell wasn't jeopardising the games for us either . He's also said he'd be happy as a caretaker and tutor for a young QB.

Other than that options could be Glennon or Foles (Kansas City aren't going to take that 2nd year option...$10m for a backup???). Both would do a decent job I think in the short term at least. Fitzpatrick will want bigger money and was a turnover machine so he's out for me. Case Keenum has been suggested some places but he was a disaster zone last year. I know I'll get lambasted by this but I am at least intrigued by Geno Smith. Before he got his jaw broken he was in line to win the Jets start job back and there were promising signs he MAY have turned the corner. Alas I fear he's probably damaged goods that may be beyond repair now.

I guess if I was to be pinned down to pick my 2 favourite scenarios they would be:

Hoyer
Trubisky
Shaw

or

Garroppolo
Barkley
Shaw

But there are probably a few scenarios I'd be ok with. For example, if we got Glennon, maybe we take Peterman in the 3rd round. That way we have a reasonable talent, at a low risk pick, to try and nurture should Glennon not pan out, yet if Glennon does well, he's young enough to play for a good few more years and as a 3rd rounder, fans wouldn't constantly be calling for Peterman every time Glennon has a wobbly game

I'll stop babbling now!!
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  #2  
Old 17.02.2017, 10:41 PM
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wayne ellis wayne ellis is online now
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Welcome to the forums! That's some first post...

Personally, I think you go QB at #3 in the Draft (probably Trubisky), with one of Hoyer or Barkley being kept on to hold the fort until the new guy's ready...
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Old 17.02.2017, 11:55 PM
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lee harris 10 lee harris 10 is offline
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Is coach Fox safe enough to have another lost season,surely if he or the GM are on the hotseat surely they will over pay for wins in 2017 rather than draft a guy to sit and maybe not be there in 2018 to see him play.
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Old 18.02.2017, 08:53 PM
TheBigEgg TheBigEgg is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lee harris 10 View Post
Is coach Fox safe enough to have another lost season,surely if he or the GM are on the hotseat surely they will over pay for wins in 2017 rather than draft a guy to sit and maybe not be there in 2018 to see him play.
I'm hopeful that Pace certainly isn't on the hotseat. I think he's done well and is starting to build something (I know results suggest otherwise but our rookie classes have shown some real promise). Not sure Fox gets too many more shots if he can't bag at least 7 wins this year though.
I think the management, even though they won't publicly admit it, realise we're in the middle of a rebuild so I think they will have a little more patience.

Fox doesn't like to roll with a Rookie apparently but thats not to say they won't draft one. They really liked Hoyer last year so I wouldn't be shocked to see him back and nurture a young guy behind him for a year or two. That being said, the quality in this draft with the top safeties might persuade them to trade for a QB and use that early pick to grab Hooker or Adams? I think we could also trade back should the opportunity arise.
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Old 21.02.2017, 02:19 PM
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olig23 olig23 is offline
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Welcome to the forums. I certainly wouldn't say you need to stop "babbling". It's nice to see some actual content, as opposed the same one or two sentence tropes.

By en large I agree with you. I think you've got a good handle on the various permutations the Bears have to contend with.

I disagree that Landry Jones is an option. Personally, I see him as nothing more than a career backup. I also think trading for Garoppolo would be a huge mistake (I've written two long posts on my rationale in the "Jimmy Garoppolo" thread, so I'll leave it at that) and I don't think AJ McCarron is anything more than a placeholder QB.

The only potential guy I can envision being tempting is Tyrod Taylor. That's if he gets cut. AND is at the right price. I think he's got many of the qualities you want, and we have the parts on the o-line to run an offence he could succeed behind (unlike Buffalo) - although we'd need a more fleet of foot RT than Massie (who is awful anyway).

In terms of what we have, I think you obviously try to keep Hoyer. He wasn't just solid, he was damned good, before getting hurt. But I think he'll find a bigger contract and chance to win a starting job on the open market. I'd have no issue with keeping Barkely. If we draft a guy at #3, he'll end up as starter, almost certainly anyway.

Beyond that, I think it's got to be via the Draft. And while it's tempting to try to find a shortcut that allows us to get a QB later, and address the other areas we need, I think that's foolish. Depsite perceptions, Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson are rare. In terms of finding success from mid-round picks (and I think Dak's success is largely a product of being part of a great offence). History shows that most told tier QBs are found at the top of the Draft. While history is littered with busts, you simply have to roll the dice when you get the opportunity. Chances are, we won't be back in this position again for a long time.

Ultimately, that pick has to be simply the player the scouts and GM like most. My personal belief is that Trubisky feels like the best prospect. I'm a big believer that accuracy is the hardest thing to change. Trubisky has that. The rest is down to him. I think Mahomes sill go in the top 15, maybe top 10. I think he's the most exciting prospect. Perhaps I am scared by recent experiences with Cutler, but there's some similarities. Watson is going to polarise. But I think he's flawed as a pro passer tbh. Intangibles like leadership are a nice plus, but they're not essential - not if you can't hit throw to a spot consistently.

In the end, many Bears fans seem to want us to take Jonathan Allen. And I can see why, he's a great prospect. But as JJ Watt and Aaron Donald prove, having All-Time great D-lineman won't get you anywhere without a QB. Fans never seem to want the QB pick. But it's the smart move - unless you actually hate all the prospects.

As for John Fox, I don't think he's in trouble yet. I think we'll give him this year and next. The Bears are not usually rash in coaching changes. But even if we do fire him, I don't get the impression from what I read that Pace and Fox are viewed as one. In fact I think Pace is viewed as extremely safe. And frankly you can see why. His two drafts have landed Eddie Goldman, Adrian Amos, Leonard Floyd, Cody Whitehair (stud) and Jordan Howard. Which, is rather impressive when compared with our historic performance in the Draft. Also, his FA moves have been pretty solid. With Freeman being a spectacular success.
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