Horse racing thread - Page 2 - NFL UK Forums
NFL UK Mobile Logo
Go Back   NFL UK Forums > Miscellaneous > Off-Topic - Sports

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #11  
Old 03.04.2014, 11:14 PM
ljs4's Avatar
ljs4 ljs4 is offline
All Pro
 
Join Date: 18.09.2009
Posts: 2,737
Default

Oopps Try again

Anyone having a bet on the National on Saturday?

Im on Long run @ 14/1 a couple more selections nearer the time.

Last edited by ljs4; 03.04.2014 at 11:16 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 04.04.2014, 11:51 AM
falcon_91's Avatar
falcon_91 falcon_91 is offline
MVP
 
Join Date: 05.05.2006
Posts: 6,209
Send a message via MSN to falcon_91
Default

Long Run, Quito de la Roque and Hunt ball.

Took Hunt Ball because at the time I thought 40s was massive and that he would get backed in because he's a popular horse and I would then lay him and guarentee some profit. Needless to say the next day he went out to 50s so thats just a waste of money.
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 04.04.2014, 12:02 PM
Gman84's Avatar
Gman84 Gman84 is offline
All Pro
 
Join Date: 09.09.2003
Posts: 3,418
Send a message via MSN to Gman84
Default

Ok, some thoughts and my tips for the National.

It's the race lots of people have their only bet of the year and it is a lottery. The main difference between this and many other races is the amount of runners and the distance means you have unknown factors to deal with. Many a good horse has been brought down, or run out of petrol, or found the other side of Beechers takes their legs away. Still, you can look at trends and form and try and gain some knowledge from it.

My picks for the race come from 8 trends which I won't go into too much detail about but basically - age, weight, distance, rating, LTO, last run and a couple of others.

The three I get from this study:

Mr Moonshine has last years winning jockey onboard - Ryan Mania. Interesting that Mania who had regularly partnered this horse jumped off to go on the evental winner but they obviously knew something so for the only time in his last 10 runs the horse was partnered by someone else in last years race and failed to complete. So whilst last year doesn't hold good memories for this horse he did come a decent 3rd in the Beecher Chase last Decemeber. He's been winning races with over 11stone on his back but comes into this carrying 10-12 so that helps.

Big Shu is a cross country specialist who won the cross country at Cheltenham in '13 and came 3rd this year. He handles big fields and long distances and travels really well and the more I think about the more I think he's got a great chance. The predicted rain helps both Big Shu and Mr Moonshine.

Pineau De Re has been set up for this race and kept over hurdles to protect his chase mark with an excellent 3rd in the Pertemps at Cheltenham. Running oiver hurdles has proven to be a useful way of setting up horses for this race with the likes of Monty's Pass, Bobbyjo and Papillon having followed a similar route. He's got a low weight and nice profile for this race and has a fair chance. Trained by a former GP in Dr Richard Newland.

So they're my three but I could make a case for 25 of the horses in the field. If forced to narrow it down to one then it's Big Shu.

Some other thoughts:

I wouldn't put anyone off of Long Run, class animal in the field with a Gold Cup and 2 King Georges. I think he'll stay but his jumping has been ropey in the past. Henderson has set him up for this though and reports hium jumping Aintree-style fences well at home. I could see him going off and trying to lead as to avoid traffic.

Teaforthree stays and jumps well but doesn't finish his races. I think he'll be in the top 6.

Couple of outsiders I might have a £1 e/w on - Golan Way fits many of the trends I looked at and he's in on a low-ish weight. Battle Group has a fine record here, won two races at the meeting last year in biggish fields with two different jocks - 50/1 in places. He's done nothing since but he's a spring horse so worth a look.

You could make a case for tonnes of horses, One In Milan's trainer Evan Williams does well in this race. Davy Russell is the man in form in big races and he has the 2012 Irish National winner to race with in Lion Na Bearnai. Chance Du Roy has great Aintree form also. Balthazar King has a similar profile to my pick, Big Shu.

Good luck if you play.

Last edited by Gman84; 04.04.2014 at 04:52 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 04.04.2014, 09:30 PM
HOMEFIELD's Avatar
HOMEFIELD HOMEFIELD is offline
Super Moderator
 
Join Date: 06.11.2005
Posts: 5,684
Send a message via ICQ to HOMEFIELD Send a message via MSN to HOMEFIELD
Default

Mr Moonshine
The Package
Walkon

Those are my three tips FWIW.

Good luck if ya having a bet.....
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 05.04.2014, 12:02 AM
wayne ellis's Avatar
wayne ellis wayne ellis is offline
Super Moderator
 
Join Date: 31.10.2005
Posts: 23,572
Default

Going for Big Shu this year, hoping to get back on form after my miserable failure last time....
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 05.04.2014, 01:20 AM
Corvus corax's Avatar
Corvus corax Corvus corax is offline
MVP
 
Join Date: 01.10.2007
Posts: 6,839
Default

I'm on Double Seven and have Burton Port as my E/W shot.

I have a feeling I should have gone for Big Shu as my E/W shot but it's done now.
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 05.04.2014, 10:08 AM
Oselly's Avatar
Oselly Oselly is offline
All Pro
 
Join Date: 15.05.2007
Posts: 1,178
Default

Got half the stakes back with bet365 so lumped for:

Across the Bay
The Package
Big Shu

and the wife went for Double 7 to match my Eldest being born on the 7th of July so fingers crossed!
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 05.04.2014, 10:23 AM
iffies's Avatar
iffies iffies is offline
MVP
 
Join Date: 08.09.2006
Posts: 5,108
Default

Balthazar King, Big Shu, The Package, The Rainbow Hunter. Watch them all fall at the first.
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 05.04.2014, 10:38 AM
jrt55555's Avatar
jrt55555 jrt55555 is offline
Super Moderator
 
Join Date: 26.10.2010
Posts: 6,670
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Oselly View Post
Got half the stakes back with bet365 so lumped for:

Across the Bay
The Package
Big Shu

and the wife went for Double 7 to match my Eldest being born on the 7th of July so fingers crossed!
Thanks for this, hadn't seen that offer - looks great. I have a bet365 account from a couple of NFL season bets a year ago so I should qualify. I'm not a better so I usually only put a few quid on the Grand National and maybe on the NFL season for a bit of fun. Been to Bath to watch some hurdles racing a few times.

Anyway, that said I've gone each-way on:

Long Run
Big Shu
Walkon

I've also got Vesper Bell in my office sweepstake.

The girlfriend is each way on:

The Package
Vintage Star

Looking forward to it

Last edited by jrt55555; 05.04.2014 at 10:50 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 05.04.2014, 11:07 AM
Gman84's Avatar
Gman84 Gman84 is offline
All Pro
 
Join Date: 09.09.2003
Posts: 3,418
Send a message via MSN to Gman84
Default

The missus has gone for The Rainbow Hunter and Hunt Ball, she'll likely do better than me who studies for hours whilst she just goes for names she likes.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT +0. The time now is 11:23 AM.