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Old 15.01.2013, 04:11 AM
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FlagOnThePlay FlagOnThePlay is offline
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Originally Posted by bluelionman View Post
I think Jon Fox should fall on his sword - how can you not trust Peyton Manning to make one throw for 7 yards on 3rd down in regulation to see out the game and then later compound that error of judgement by taking a knee and the lottery of a coin toss in Over Time rather than let a great QB with 31 secs still on the clock and 2 time outs in a tied game not try to get you in Field Goal range to win the game - coaching decisions threw that game away as much as Baltimore's D won it!
You don't want to push it to far. Had they gone for it and throw an interception that results in a game winning FG then you would call for Fox's head for not taking a knee.

It is easy for us armchair coaches to make a risky call. Go for it on 4th down, Call a fake punt. But when it is your job and career on the line... that is different.

This team is two years removed from the second worst record in the NFL. We have come on in great leaps, but are far from the finished article.

We did well against teams, but couldn't beat teams like New England, Houston and Atlanta all playoff teams. During the regular season we beat two playoff teams Baltimore and Cincinnati.

We beat Baltimore when they had several starters (including Ray Lewis) missing and a messed up o-line that was fixed by Jim Caldwell.

We need a couple more off season where we bring in new talent, improve the players we have and upgrade a few positions.

key factor include resigning free agents like Clady, Carter and Vickerson.

Look to upgrade Safety, D-line, MLB, interior O-line and Running back Depth.

Could Champ begin to transition to safety making CB depth a need?

Draft and free agency will be key to the future.

With the limited time scales for Manning and Champ the window of opportunity is short.
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Old 15.01.2013, 03:49 PM
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CJayDixon CJayDixon is offline
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Originally Posted by FlagOnThePlay View Post
This team is two years removed from the second worst record in the NFL. We have come on in great leaps, but are far from the finished article...

...With the limited time scales for Manning and Champ the window of opportunity is short.
This is what we should be focusing on... I'm just about starting to get over the loss on Saturday, but I always thought that it would take 2 years of Peyton to realistically win the big one... It was only when we won 11 straight that I started to believe this year was a possibility.

I genuinely believe we need to beat New England, Houston and Baltimore next year during the regular season to break into the AFC Championship game come January. I don't doubt for a second that the divisional title will be ours again, so we will have some sort of shot next year, but I reckon there were still little doubts in the back of the players minds in that game on Saturday and by beating the likes of the Pats and Texans next year, it will go some way to curing that.

John Fox by the way should certainly not even be close to having his name thrown out there for sacking... He has done a brilliant job these past two years. He's proved his versatility with Orton, Tebow and Manning at QB. It looks like Mike McCoy will move on, which is fair enough, so hopefully our new OC will work just as well with Manning, and if we can hold onto Jack Del Rio, our defence can only get better IMO. Hopefully pick up a Safety or Inside LB in the first round of the Draft (if we can't sort those in FA) and next year we will be *obscenity* hot. Go Broncos!!!
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Old 18.01.2013, 01:34 PM
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The Milehigh Broncos The Milehigh Broncos is offline
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Originally Posted by Galdo52 View Post
You should probably take that sword and use it on Jim Schwartz!

Fox has done a fine job in Denver and will continue to do so.

Anyway wanted to come into the Denver forum to thank the Broncos for what is easily the most entertaining game of football I've ever seen! Truly what the NFL is all about a great spectacle. I'm pretty confident you guys will win a Superbowl in the next 3 years!
Cheers Galdo, I would agree with you on your comments about being tha best game you have even seen, but only if the Broncos had won. That was a tough loss to take , im a passionate Broncos fan and that was tough. But im not bitter. I hope you guys go on and get another ring for Ray.

Your right, the Broncos will be back stronger and I am confident we can bring another Lombard trophy back to Denver within the next few years. Hopefully Peyton can be as good for another 2/3 years.
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Old 22.01.2013, 07:07 AM
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Anarchy in the WV Anarchy in the WV is offline
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A bit late:

Fox Gets Conservative: Did The Denver Coach’s Risk-Averse Strategy Cost The Broncos A Playoff Victory?
Brian Burke

NFL coaches will often refer to "playing the percentages." But if there's one thing I've learned by studying strategic decisions, it's that coaches don't have a firm grasp of those percentages. And when anyone is uncertain of the odds, he'll fall back on the sure thing. That was the case with Broncos coach John Fox, who opted for the conservative approach at almost every opportunity in Saturday's playoff game against the Ravens. Even so, Fox is getting more criticism than he deserves. The Denver coach isn't the reason the Broncos lost.
Fox's first conservative decision came after a Baltimore touchdown tied the game at 21 near the end of the first half. Denver had a first-and-10 at its own 20 with 36 seconds left on the clock and all three timeouts—five more seconds and one more timeout than the Falcons had when they drove for the winning field goal on Sunday. Even so, the Broncos elected to call a throwaway run play and head for the locker room. In recent league history (since 2000), teams in that situation score slightly more than 10 percent of the time, the vast majority being field goals. Turnovers are definitely a risk, and they occur about 8 percent of the time on half-ending drives. But the bulk of those turnovers are on Hail Mary-type passes, which virtually never result in an opponent being able to score. Taken all together, the numbers say the scoring expectation was positive for Denver by a factor of 3-to-1. That's analytics-speak for, yeah, they should have tried to score there.

For the second year in a row, Slate and Deadspin are teaming up for a season-long NFL roundtable. Check back here each week as a rotating cast of football watchers discusses the weekend's key plays, coaching decisions, and traumatic brain injuries. And click here to play the latest episode of Slate's sports podcast Hang Up and Listen.
Fox's next risk-averse decision came late in the fourth quarter. With the Broncos up 35-28, the Denver coach chose to run the ball five straight times. Fox's strategy succeeded in gaining one first down and forcing the Ravens to burn their last two timeouts. That left Denver with a third-and-7 at its own 47. Convert there and the game is over. Fox, though, decided to run rather than let Peyton Manning put the ball in the air. Ronnie Hillman was held to no gain, and the Broncos punted with 1:15 left on the clock.

Calling this running play was the safe, "sure thing" for the Broncos. Fox virtually ensured that he'd burn an additional 40 seconds of time and pin Baltimore deep in its own territory with about 70 seconds to play. There was also a slim chance that Denver could have converted with the run, winning the game outright. A pass would have been a gamble. A successful conversion would sew up the win, but an incomplete pass would have given Baltimore the ball with about 1:49 left. Passing also brings an extra risk of a turnover, either via an interception or a sack and a fumble.

For teams that need a touchdown to survive, time makes a big difference. With 1:09 to play, a team typically has a 13 percent chance of scoring a touchdown. With 1:49 to go, they have around a 26 percent chance. The choice, then, is between conceding Baltimore the 13 percent shot or gambling that you'll either win the game outright or give Baltimore a 26 percent chance to win. League-wide, third-and-7 situations are converted 42 percent of the time. That means if Denver drops back to pass, Baltimore's chance of winning is (1 - 0.42) * 0.26 = 0.15 = 15 percent. According to the math, then, Fox made the right call: Punting was, just barely, the right probabilistic call.

Conservative call no. 3 came at the end of regulation, after Jacoby Jones got past Denver safety Rahim Moore to tie the game with his 70-yard touchdown catch. With 31 seconds to play and 2 timeouts, Fox repeated his decision from the end of the first half, electing to take a knee at his own 20 rather than let Peyton Manning try to maneuver into position for a game-winning field goal. It's undeniably risky, but the odds are strongly in the offense's favor there. Yes, the chances of scoring to win in regulation are small, but they significantly exceed the probability of a meaningful turnover.

But in Fox's defense, the Broncos and Ravens weren't playing in the Georgia Dome. The wind was in Denver's face on the final drive of each half-kickoffs in that direction were regularly getting returned, while kickoffs the opposite way were sailing out of the end zone. Field-goal kickers also get less accurate in cold weather, meaning the Broncos would've had to advance a long way down the field given the single-digit temperatures.

There was also the matter of Peyton Manning's arm. For whatever reason—possibly the cold weather having some effect on his grip—Manning did not appear to have the velocity needed for deep passes. Only 2 of his 43 attempts went more than 15 yards downfield. (Quarterbacks typically throw about 20 percent of their passes deep downfield, and Manning averaged 19 percent in the regular season.) So even if the probabilities suggest that Denver should've tried to score, you can understand why, given all these factors, Fox sat on the ball.

The coach's final conservative decision was a bit more under the radar. In overtime, the Broncos faced a fourth-and-1 from their own 39, and Fox should have gone for the first down. Intuitively it might seem suicidal to go for it in your own territory in overtime, but the rules of sudden death make possession far more valuable than field position. Punting was the sure-thing option, virtually guaranteeing the Ravens get the ball near their own 20. Going for it is obviously an enormous gamble, but believe it or not, the odds favor it. Manning's short game was working well. He completed 68 percent of his passes on the year and 65 percent on Saturday. Fourth-and-1 situations are converted about 72 percent of the time, and given Manning's accuracy a quick pass would have been a high probability bet. The math works out so that, based on general averages, the punt would have given Denver a 49 percent chance of winning, but going for it would have worked out to a 53 percent chance.

But again, Fox didn't necessarily do his team a disservice here. The Broncos were heavy favorites, having beaten the Ravens 34-17 in Baltimore just a few weeks earlier. The right overall approach for Denver was a "low-variance" strategy, relying on the team's overall superiority to methodically come out on top. The better team should avoid high-leverage situations that put the game at the mercy of a few big plays. Unfortunately for John Fox, Baltimore succeeded by pursuing a high-variance strategy. They went for the big play time after time, getting touchdown passes of 59, 32, and 70 yards. That's exactly what a big underdog needs to do to win.

Fox's conservatism may have cost his team slightly, but he didn't decide the outcome of the game. The effect of these four calls was swamped by the impact of a few big plays, any one of which would have given Denver the win had it turned out differently.

Brian Burke is a former Navy fighter pilot and the founder of the website Advanced NFL Stats. He is a regular contributor at the New York Times's Fifth Down and the Washington Post's The Insider.
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Old 29.01.2013, 12:56 PM
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phr102 phr102 is offline
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In short, No. Ridiculous to suggest.

Shall assume that you're suggesting that Moore, one of the most significant improvers on a still-improving defence, should hang up his cleats? That Champ should now shift to safety? That those responsible for not shifting Champ to Boldin should also go? Anymore knee-jerk reactions you want to throw in there?

We cam significantly-closer than our limited defense suggested we would. There remain too many holes to open up another.
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Old 30.01.2013, 06:57 PM
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phoenix492 phoenix492 is offline
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Been a while since I've come into here, and I knew I'd find a thread about fox being fired.

Fox did the perfect thing - Even with Manning under center, 31 seconds left, and 2 TO's, he should of taken a knee. Fox isn't to blame, hell no one person is. It's bad seeing people wanting a HC's head for the act of getting us an extra time to actually have a change at scoring.

No one mentions the Matt Prater miss that could of put us out of reach? No one mentions a much improved Moreno limping off, and cutting what running game we had going. If we had had Moreno in, we could have wasted a lot more time, and Manning might not have thrown interception / etc etc.
No one mentions the tipped pass that got returned - something that could happen to anyone. It's a million to one shot. Unfortunately, that one was against us.
No one mentions Flacco being in the form of his life, and the emotional high that the Ravens were / are having.

I think calls for Fox to go are a joke. As is anyone for the sack. Ravens would have beaten anyone - ANYONE. They took out the Colts, the Pats, and I have money on them doing the same to the 49ers this Sunday.

I do believe Champ should maybe move to Safety - but this purely because we need to get a young CB in with Champ around to pass on his knowledge, without the threat of having a rookie CB left with no cover.

Am I concerned about Rahim Moore at Safety? He's improved from last year, but he's still young, in a young defence (as has been mentioned before) so I think he'll continue getting better next year.

My only concern is, unfortunately, Manning. He has admitted that the gloves are because of the strength in his arm (or lack of), and the fumble might have been avoided if he was 100% fit, and maybe next year we don't push for the number 1 seed so we can travel to a slightly hotter stadium for him, but that's it.

Frankly, the game could of gone anyway, and calls for Fox to go are simply mad!
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