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  #14701  
Old 06.12.2017, 10:10 PM
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The impact of Brexit reports won't be released because...they havent been done.
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  #14702  
Old 06.12.2017, 10:16 PM
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Originally Posted by lee harris 10 View Post
until we get onto stage 2 when they can actually talk trade and things aren't these impact reports just pure guesstimates based on pure speculation and not even close to been reliable predictions.
As HSTDriver points out, they are a fabrication. There are no impact assessments, impact reports, etc. The Brexiteers simply have no idea what will happen to the economy when we leave, whatever the scenario. David Davis lied repeatedly - and he lied to Parliament - about this.

Granted, assessing the impact of a soft Brexit would be difficult, because it would depend on the nature of the deal.

But a hard Brexit - the no deal scenario - we have known since the referendum (and before!) what that looks like. There is no excuse for not doing any work on that. That is cost benefit analysis. The GES do that all the time. Yes, a hard Brexit would be a big one! But we train economists for a reason.

How can you negotiate something when you don't have an inkling what the consequences of failed negotiations will be? Because the price of a failure to reach agreement should itself be a factor in the negotiations. One word for that is "the stakes" and the Brexiteers just confessed they do not have a clue what the stakes are. Playing poker with no idea how much you have resting on your hand. Nice.

His explanation of paradigm change is nonsense. Crashing out of the EU is not a paradigm change. It would be an economic shock. What David Davis means by this is that the cost of a hard Brexit would be incalculably large; that trying to measure it is as pointless as trying to calculate the cost of the boxing day tsunami as the waves roll in. If you can avoid it in any way, you do that. If not, you just find something to cling on to.

If you want to know what an economic shock can do, consider the 1973 oil price shock. A (steep!) rise in the cost of a single commodity had devastating consequences for the economy.

And then we have fanatics like Ian Duncan Smith who positively want a hard Brexit. Despite evidently having no idea of the consequences. Just not caring. Idealogues.
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  #14703  
Old 07.12.2017, 02:31 PM
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I'll admit to being truly shocked when I heard some of the quotes on the radio this morning. Mr Davis performance in front of the Exiting the European Union select committee was about as crass a volte-face as I have ever seen and given Mr Davis history that's saying something.

So now we have a referendum that was won on lies and over simplifications with the winners admitting they had no clue what the implications of winning would be and no coherent idea or strategy about what to do with the win anyway.

It's looking more and more like a The Thick of It Christmas Special.
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  #14704  
Old 07.12.2017, 08:07 PM
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It's looking more and more like a The Thick of It Christmas Special.
Except The Thick of It is funny. Whereas this is our lives.
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  #14705  
Old 07.12.2017, 08:16 PM
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so it looks like Momentum are been investigated for there spending during the 2017 election.they claim to have spent just over £38k which is ok as there is a £39k limit on organisation like them but now there are concerns they may have forgotten to declare some spending.

also looks like the Guardian is in trouble.lost £38m last year and reports it will switch to a tabloid lay-out to try and save money.

wonder how the BBC would everbe able to fill a political panel if there where no guardian writers to have on????
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  #14706  
Old 07.12.2017, 09:06 PM
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Originally Posted by lee harris 10 View Post
so it looks like Momentum are been investigated for there spending during the 2017 election.they claim to have spent just over £38k which is ok as there is a £39k limit on organisation like them but now there are concerns they may have forgotten to declare some spending.

also looks like the Guardian is in trouble.lost £38m last year and reports it will switch to a tabloid lay-out to try and save money.

wonder how the BBC would everbe able to fill a political panel if there where no guardian writers to have on????
£38m.... a drop in the bucket compared to Brexit's costs.

The Guardian always loses money. The format might change but it won't become a tabloid in the sense we think of tabloids.

Newspapers generally are doomed, at least in print format. The Guardian online is one of the most widely read English language news websites in the world (and you will see they have sections that cater for American and Australian audiences in particular). But people are stopping buying newspapers. The move away from physical papers is slowest among the elderly and the tabloid reader base, who on average are likely to be less tech savvy. The paper you read still says a lot about you: the average Guardian print reader is age 44. Compare that to the Daily Mail (58) and the Telegraph (61). 73% of Mail and Telegraph print readers are age 55+! Only 15% are age under 35. The Guardian on the other hand has twice the number of young readers but only half the number of 55+ readers and less than half the other two when it comes to those aged 65+. Which in an era where the elderly predominantly continue to buy papers and the young do not, is better news for the Mail and Telegraph than it is for the Guardian. But it is a ticking time bomb, because those people won't be around to buy papers forever and unless you believe people turn 60 and suddenly start buying the Telegraph then the chances are that those readers will not be replaced.

The red tops do have a younger audience in print, perhaps as their demographics are less computer literate. Certainly if you go on the Sun or Mirror websites they are astonishingly basic for publications that shift over a million copies per day in print. This is likely not an accident.

The Sun, the Mail etc are also losing readers in print, but perhaps more slowly. Meanwhile the Independent, another paper with younger readership, has already moved to online only.

https://www.themediabriefing.com/art...cs-advertising

So the Guardian won't disappear. But it may change. As in time, will all newspapers.
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  #14707  
Old 07.12.2017, 11:34 PM
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Originally Posted by lee harris 10 View Post
so it looks like Momentum are been investigated for there spending during the 2017 election.they claim to have spent just over £38k which is ok as there is a £39k limit on organisation like them but now there are concerns they may have forgotten to declare some spending.
If so they should suffer the same fate as Vote Leave. That does seem to be currently nothing though!

It's a bit of a storm in a teacup when you consider the US election consumed appx $2.3bn.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...paign-finance/

If slapping a few wrists keeps us well away from figures like that it will be worth it!

Quote:
Originally Posted by lee harris 10 View Post
also looks like the Guardian is in trouble.lost £38m last year and reports it will switch to a tabloid lay-out to try and save money.

wonder how the BBC would everbe able to fill a political panel if there where no guardian writers to have on????
Losing money is just what the Guardian does.

It's too left wing for me. Just so reliably left wing on everything, the whole thing seems like an editorial. Not that there are any dailies still standing that are balanced!
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  #14708  
Old 08.12.2017, 07:15 AM
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Originally Posted by lee harris 10 View Post

wonder how the BBC would everbe able to fill a political panel if there where no guardian writers to have on????
As long as Farage, Mogg and Julia Hartley-Brewer are about I’m sure they’d mange.
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  #14709  
Old 08.12.2017, 07:18 AM
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Re: The Irish border and regulation, taken from today’s published talks.

"In the absence of agreed solutions, the United
Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the
Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all-
island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement."
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  #14710  
Old 08.12.2017, 07:26 AM
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Originally Posted by HSTDriver View Post
Re: The Irish border and regulation, taken from today’s published talks.

"In the absence of agreed solutions, the United
Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the
Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all-
island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement."
So the DUP get their wish - Northern Ireland will have no difference in regulation with the UK - but potentially leaves the entire U.K. in the single market and customs union. Farage will be spitting his cornflakes out this morning.

Last edited by HSTDriver; 08.12.2017 at 08:57 AM.
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