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  #12601  
Old 30.01.2017, 10:45 PM
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Originally Posted by European Bob View Post
We haven't left the EU yet, if you hadn't noticed. The economy is still benefiting from all the things it was the day before the vote.
Incase you missed it a senior BoE guy came out about 2 weeks back and described there post brexit predictions as been "there michael fish moment".

has the economy not grown steadily by 0.6% when the experts where saying it would go the other way.
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  #12602  
Old 30.01.2017, 11:10 PM
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Originally Posted by lee harris 10 View Post
Incase you missed it a senior BoE guy came out about 2 weeks back and described there post brexit predictions as been "there michael fish moment".

has the economy not grown steadily by 0.6% when the experts where saying it would go the other way.
Well that guy is an idiot. Post-Brexit has not happened yet. Post means 'after'. And as we all know by now from our dear leader, 'Brexit means Brexit'. Brexit hasn't happened yet: voting for something doesn't mean it happens the next day. Like that £350m on the NHS.

As for economic growth... again, at the moment the UK still has all the benefits of the EU. The only change has been uncertainty of what might come in the future (none of us knows) and the weakening of the Pound. The true test will be later.

In the meantime, there are likely to be some challenges ahead, not related to the EU or leaving it but perhaps exacerbated by the weakening of the currency in a nation that likes to spend. Inflation is rising. Costs are rising, wages are not. UK consumer debt (credit cards, loans and the like) hit record highs last year - beyond even the 2007/08 levels that sparked the credit crunch. Credit card debt grew over 10% last year. The average UK household now owes £7,100 in credit card debt. If interest rates rise, which they may need to if there is increased inflation, this could spell trouble, as might it spell trouble for numerous people who are barely covering mortgages despite rates having been at record lows for a few years now.
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  #12603  
Old 30.01.2017, 11:39 PM
davidjones178@hotmail.co.uk
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Originally Posted by lee harris 10 View Post
Incase you missed it a senior BoE guy came out about 2 weeks back and described there post brexit predictions as been "there michael fish moment".
This again??

No. He didn't.

He *did not* say that the BoE had a Michael Fish moment. If you think he did, go back and read his remarks and you will see what he was actually talking about when he alluded to Michael Fish. It was not the BoE.

Did the tabloids run with this or something? It seems to have stuck somehow.

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Originally Posted by lee harris 10 View Post
has the economy not grown steadily by 0.6% when the experts where saying it would go the other way.
Metaphor a Clock !

If you put a three legged horse into a race the experts will predict it will finish last. If you then take it out of the race you can't go around saying that the experts were wrong because it didn't finish last.

David Cameron pledged to invoke Article 50 on the Monday after the vote. He didn't, and it hasn't been invoked yet. What we got instead of a rash commitment to pull the trigger in Europe was a long delay. The calm before the storm.

On the basis of gloomy predictions, the BoE pumped money into the economy to try to mitigate the fall out.

This is like being on a ship heading for an iceberg. Someone hollers to warn the captain about it, he yanks the wheel hard over and you miss it. Then you complain about your rest being disturbed because of some nonsense over an iceberg. Did we hit it? No! What's all the yelling about then?

It's not a great metaphor because really the iceberg moved out of the way of the ship. The BoE is fooling itself if it thinks dropping the interest rate to 0.25% did very much. Interest rate changes can take a long time to have any impact on an economy.

Now I need a metaphor for where your thinking appears to be on the economy. I'll go for the guy falling from the top of a ten storey building. As he plunges past the 3rd storey someone shouts from a window.."Are you okay!?" to which he replies "So far, so good!".

Now that the dramatic decline of the pound is kicking in, inflation is shooting up.

http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/char...58s&forecast=2

Interest rates are at their lowest level since records began in 1791.

Those are not healthy signs.

In something as large as an economy, there are significant delays between inputs and outputs. Where GDP is now was not determined last week or over Christmas or even after Brexit. You are feeling the effects of the economic environment in 2015. This is when the investment decisions were taken that have worked their way through to GDP now.

You can therefore expect the economic impact of the Brexit vote to begin showing up appx this time next year - and the impact of negotiations in the Summer of 2018.

There are effects in the short term, of course. You saw that right away when sterling slumped. This makes us all poorer abroad. There may be further short term effects, but when it comes to growth, it is a long race.
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  #12604  
Old 30.01.2017, 11:58 PM
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Originally Posted by lee harris 10 View Post
The executive order that any presidents sign as explained by a law professor on CNN cannot create laws but can only enforce exsisting legislation.

The roll out of this policy was poor to say the least as once he signed it nobody knew exactly how it affected a small number of people travelling to the US.think out of 350,000 people who flew into america in the 1st 24 hours just over 100 people had to be held and think all of those have now been allowed into the states.
It was implemented in such an amateurish, cack handed manner. Without proper advice, without consulting the departments it was likely to affect. We'll just stop 'em coming in! No notice, no consideration for people already en route, no process for people who may be sitting in an airport hotel with their whole lives in their suitcase, and now they have nowhere to go to...

But this is the substance of my objection. The moronic implementation. But this is a guy with no political experience at all. With less hands on political experience than a parish councillor. So you get what you paid for, maybe. If you elect someone to fly your plane who has never flown a plane before, you are in for a bumpy ride! Which is small solace for the poor people who were and are adversely affected.

As for the ban itself, implementation aside, it's heavy handed but I think the US is within it's rights to dictate who comes into the USA - and why. I don't really understand the protests in this country about it. Unless they are Americans.

Banning refugees is harsh. Trump has effectively withdrawn the USA from the UN Convention on Refugees. This was established after WW2 when a bunch of countries decided that, gee, maybe it would have been better if we had let more of those Jewish people into our country. Rather than slamming the door in their face.

But the UK has not covered itself in glory here either. The US has a much better track record here than we do, even accounting for it's size. The US admitted 85,000 refugees last year. There are appx 117,000 refugees in the UK. Not 117,000 per year, 117,000 in total - all that have ever arrived that are still here and are still refugees.
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  #12605  
Old 31.01.2017, 07:31 AM
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Originally Posted by European Bob View Post
One wonders what it would take for you not to defend Trump.
As long as Tom Brady owns a 'make america great again' hat, Trump will have a core of support in the north east



Seriously. This week I have to root for a trump supporting, ball deflating, phone destroying serial lying team and their evil empire. Just because nobody in the NFC was strong enough to stop the Falcons reaching the Super Bowl
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  #12606  
Old 31.01.2017, 01:24 PM
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Originally Posted by HSTDriver View Post
As long as Tom Brady owns a 'make america great again' hat, Trump will have a core of support in the north east



Seriously. This week I have to root for a trump supporting, ball deflating, phone destroying serial lying team and their evil empire. Just because nobody in the NFC was strong enough to stop the Falcons reaching the Super Bowl
Brady owns a "do your job" & a "one more" hat I think.unless nike or under armour make the Trump hats dont think he will wear one.
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  #12607  
Old 31.01.2017, 01:28 PM
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Brexiters and Trump supporters labelling everyone else as left wing luvvies is getting very tiresome.
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  #12608  
Old 31.01.2017, 01:31 PM
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Originally Posted by lee harris 10 View Post
Brady owns a "do your job" & a "one more" hat I think.unless nike or under armour make the Trump hats dont think he will wear one.
He definitely owns a Trump 'MAGA' hat - Trump sent it to him, apparently. It's there in the pic

Linky. Seriously, how much grief would you give a teammate for having Trump as a personal friend?
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  #12609  
Old 31.01.2017, 01:32 PM
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Mark Carney predicted a dramatic slowdown in growth if the country voted to leave the EU.

Forecast by the Treasury/IMF and others all pointed to a recession after the vote based on the assumptions of steeply declining consumer spending and business investment.

These where the experts telling us what would happen in the months straight after any leave vote.

Guess we still have George Osbourne's 2030 prediction that each family will be over £4000 worse off that could still happen.
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  #12610  
Old 31.01.2017, 01:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Manic Patriot View Post
Brexiters and Trump supporters labelling everyone else as left wing luvvies is getting very tiresome.
Yep, Along with 'SJW' and numerous others that I couldn't post on this forum.

And the really amusing thing is that these phrases regularly get bandied about in place of an actual argument.

Impossible to debate with some folks.
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