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Old 10.04.2019, 11:03 AM
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RavenOggy RavenOggy is offline
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Long time forum watcher not very frequent poster but I'm currently taking part in the mock draft as I've done a couple of times over the years and was curious who is as sad as me and watches hours of tape to come up with a top 100. Said I would post my top 100 as a separate thread and there are only a couple of players left in my top 100 so happy to post it now but with a couple of players missing as they haven't gone yet in the mock.

I've been doing it for about ten years, because American Football wasn't taking up enough of my life anymore after I stopped playing and I love writing too. I watch about 150 players in depth (couple of hundred words plus stats write up usually through watching one full game tape and 3-4 cut up videos - do have a job so can't do much more!). I put it all into a report with all the write-ups and team need analysis but don't publish or anything it's usually just for me. Don't like to tell anyone in the real world as if you check the word count it gets up over 35,000 which I think most would consider ridiculous but I feel like this is a safe space.

Anyway, here it is below - there are certainly a few controversial spots for some players, but I get a pool of players together and then sort them alphabetically so I can, as much as possible, not be too influenced by other people's rankings, although I do think its healthy to cross-reference with a few people you think highly of in the media to check players you're higher or lower on. I also have a system where I give blue, green and red chips. Blue chips are for players I love, green chips for players I like an awful lot and red chips for players I wouldn't draft even though I still evaluate them as accurately as I can without the bias. Also I use a 0-100 grading system, tried some others but this is the one I started with so feel most comfortable with it and can compare to previous years. I don't often give grades above 95 and my true first round grades start at 91 though I would consider 90 grades at the end of round one with true value beginning at the start of round 2. This is repeated down through the 80s and 70s with 80 grade players being considered in round 2 but true value starting in round 3.

Obviously there is more detail beyond the list but can't publish everything here!

No. Grade Name
1 94 Nick Bosa
2 94 Quinnen Williams
3 93 Ed Oliver
4 93 Josh Jacobs
5 93 T.J. Hockenson
6 93 Kyler Murray
7 92 Rashan Gary
8 92 Josh Allen
9 92 Devin White
10 92 Andre Dillard
11 91 Clelin Ferrell
12 91 Brian Burns
13 91 Dwayne Haskins
14 91 Jeffery Simmons
15 90 Marquise Brown
16 90 Jonah Williams
17 90 A.J. Brown
18 90 Montez Sweat
19 90 Noah Fant
20 90 Drew Lock
21 90 Devin Bush Jr.
22 90 Johnathan Abram
23 89 Rock Ya-Sin
24 89 Garrett Bradbury
25 89 Hakeem Butler
26 89 Christian Wilkins
27 89 Greg Little
28 89 Jachai Polite
29 88 Greedy Williams
30 88 Byron Murphy
31 88 Nasir Adderley
32 88 Chauncey Gardner-Johnson
33 88 Cody Ford
34 88 DeAndre Baker
35 87 Taylor Rapp
36 87 Jawaan Taylor
37 87 Chase Winovich
38 87 Dre'Mont Jones
39 87 Jaylon Ferguson
40 86 Devin Singletary
41 86 N'Keal Harry
42 86 Amani Oruwariye
43 85 Tytus Howard
44 85 Dalton Risner
45 85 Jerry Tillery
46 84 Chris Lindstrom
47 84 Erik McCoy
48 84 Riley Ridley
49 83 Trayvon Mullen
50 83 D.K. Metcalf
51 83 Irv Smith Jr.
52 83 Dexter Lawrence
53 81 Yodny Cajuste
54 81
55 81 D'Andre Walker
56 81 Anthony Nelson
57 80 Joejuan Williams
58 80 Justin Layne
59 80 Michael Jordan
60 80 Lonnie Johnson Jr.
61 80 Miles Sanders
62 80 Kaleb McGary
63 79 JJ Arcega-Whiteside
64 79 Parris Campbell
65 79 Jace Sternberger
66 79 David Montgomery
67 78 Darnell Savage Jr.
68 78 Gerald Willis III
69 78 Darrell Henderson
70 78 Kelvin Harmon
71 77 Andy Isabella
72 77 Deebo Samuel
73 76 Drue Tranquill
74 76 Charles Omenihu
75 75 Germaine Pratt
76 75 Zach Allen
77 75 Connor McGovern
78 74
79 74 Dontavius Russell
80 74 Daniel Jones
81 74 Elgton Jenkins
82 73 Oshane Ximines
83 73 Michael Deiter
84 73 Beau Benzschawel
85 72 Kahale Warring
86 72 Juan Thornhill
87 72 Will Harris
88 72 Nate Davis
89 72 Dru Samia
90 71 Corey Ballentine
91 71 Mecole Hardman
92 70 LJ Collier
93 70 Mack Wilson
94 70
95 70 Jarrett Stidham
96 70 Will Grier
97 70 Jalen Hurd
98 69 Julian Love
99 69 Jamel Dean
100 69 Tommy Sweeney
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  #2  
Old 10.04.2019, 11:24 AM
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LesterHayes LesterHayes is offline
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I was talking to the Chiefs GM, who I know in the real world, the other day. It's his first NFLUK Draft and he was surprised just how seriously some people do this. You're one of those I take it?

Some interesting placings there. Pleased to see all my early picks are in your Top 11. Interestingly there were some red flags on one of your Green Chip players? Chase Winovich? Apparently some poor character stuff in interviews? Personally I'd stay away from any player who wants to pretend they're Thor or auditioning for Spinal Tap!

I think I feel the same way about Kyler Murray and am starting to worry we may blow some of our draft capital to go up and get him. For me he's just too titchy.

Last edited by LesterHayes; 10.04.2019 at 11:29 AM.
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Old 10.04.2019, 11:28 AM
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And I've just seen Corey Ballentine made it!
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Old 10.04.2019, 11:57 AM
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RavenOggy RavenOggy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LesterHayes View Post
I was talking to the Chiefs GM, who I know in the real world, the other day. It's his first NFLUK Draft and he was surprised just how seriously some people do this. You're one of those I take it?

Some interesting placings there. Pleased to see all my early picks are in your Top 11. Interestingly there were some red flags on one of your Green Chip players? Chase Winovich? Apparently some poor character stuff in interviews? Personally I'd stay away from any player who wants to pretend they're Thor or auditioning for Spinal Tap!

I think I feel the same way about Kyler Murray and am starting to worry we may blow some of our draft capital to go up and get him. For me he's just too titchy.
Haha I'm definitely one of those! And I did like your first round a lot.

I hadn't heard that about Winovich where did you see that? Would be interested to have a look. There's a great All or Nothing series on Amazon following the Michigan Wolverines and he features a lot in that and he seems like a good person though sure that could be for the cameras. I also wonder whether the interview rumours are teams wanting him to drop a little so putting false stuff out there. Anyway he's a blue chip for me for what he does on the field, just love his toughness and his motor. I think he lacks a little bit of explosion but he has plenty of moves as a pass rusher and can set the edge.

With Kyler Murray, I could be very wrong as he is so insanely talented. Cards on the table - I'm an A's fan so there could be some unconscious bias there. But it also means I've followed his story the last year or so before he was on anyone's draft radar and the thing that concerns me most, more than the height, is that he seems really really arrogant. Again, could be very wrong as this is based on a hunch and feel bad knocking him when not knowing him but I worry that someone so arrogant won't be able to see/work on the things he needs to improve as a QB and with only one year of production we haven't seen him go through a lot of adversity or teams working him out. With the exception of the Bama game where he did manage to right the ship after a shaky start.
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Old 10.04.2019, 12:52 PM
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I saw the All or Nothing series and agree with your view. He seemed pretty blue collar to me but, with those things, you just never know. It could have been edited to death. I quite like the player but worry he may be one of those college stars who just don't have enough of everything to make it in the pros. Here's the article:

http://walterfootball.com/NFLHotPress

Ed Oliver gets a mention too.

With Murray, for me, it's all about the measurables. Arrogance can be a good thing in a QB but I just think he's too small. I really don't buy his height at the combine and his playing weight is under 200lbs. That just doesn't cut it for me at QB and, while I know that there are some smaller QB's in the league there isn't one that small. Wilson might be short (he's not really though) but he's heavy enough and stocky enough. Mayfield is over 6ft and 210lbs. Personally I just don't get that people can sell themselves on Murrays size by using two players who are both taller and heavier? That's not to say he's not talented, he clearly is, but I wouldn't draft him. At all. I hope to God we don't.

By way of an explanation, there's a lot of talk about him having to play from the shotgun? That matters. It's not just about him being out from Centre (although that does matter) it changes everything. Blocking, timing with Receivers, hand offs, the lot. It also allows the opposition to plan for one type of attack. He is too small to take snaps from under Centre, even those championing him, admit that. Do I really want to overhaul my entire Offensive gameplan just to take a chance on some Pee Wee guy with a bucket load of talent? I also hate taking players with 1 year of production and wonder how well he'd do were he playing college ball this fall with all the opposition now having a year of tape. RGIII showed how that can go in the pro's. Just too much risk for me.

Last edited by LesterHayes; 10.04.2019 at 01:10 PM.
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Old 10.04.2019, 01:33 PM
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Interesting list, and again hats off for putting in the hours.

You've got Mack Wilson quite a way down your list (compared to some). I haven't watched his film, but he was quite highly thought of heading into the season iirc, what's the knock on him?

Interested to see you full in the remaining blanks on your top 100 too. It wouldn't surprise me if the other guy I considered at 191 in the mock was one of them.
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Old 10.04.2019, 01:50 PM
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Out of interest, who'd you play for Oggy?
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Old 10.04.2019, 02:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RichardCunliffe View Post
Interesting list, and again hats off for putting in the hours.

You've got Mack Wilson quite a way down your list (compared to some). I haven't watched his film, but he was quite highly thought of heading into the season iirc, what's the knock on him?

Interested to see you full in the remaining blanks on your top 100 too. It wouldn't surprise me if the other guy I considered at 191 in the mock was one of them.
Thanks Richard!

I liked him coming into the season but for me he did not at all kick on, I believe, in the way I was hoping, by being football smarter. I think he's a sure tackler, a tone-setter, good on the blitz and he can cover so I don't hate him, but I'm concerned with context in that I'd like to see more anticipation to make plays at or behind the line of scrimmage especially when playing behind Quinnen Williams. I think he can get lost in bigger blockers and I think he can get victimised with the angles he takes and gets badly beaten in space.
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Old 10.04.2019, 02:02 PM
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RavenOggy RavenOggy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LesterHayes View Post
I saw the All or Nothing series and agree with your view. He seemed pretty blue collar to me but, with those things, you just never know. It could have been edited to death. I quite like the player but worry he may be one of those college stars who just don't have enough of everything to make it in the pros. Here's the article:

http://walterfootball.com/NFLHotPress

Ed Oliver gets a mention too.

With Murray, for me, it's all about the measurables. Arrogance can be a good thing in a QB but I just think he's too small. I really don't buy his height at the combine and his playing weight is under 200lbs. That just doesn't cut it for me at QB and, while I know that there are some smaller QB's in the league there isn't one that small. Wilson might be short (he's not really though) but he's heavy enough and stocky enough. Mayfield is over 6ft and 210lbs. Personally I just don't get that people can sell themselves on Murrays size by using two players who are both taller and heavier? That's not to say he's not talented, he clearly is, but I wouldn't draft him. At all. I hope to God we don't.

By way of an explanation, there's a lot of talk about him having to play from the shotgun? That matters. It's not just about him being out from Centre (although that does matter) it changes everything. Blocking, timing with Receivers, hand offs, the lot. It also allows the opposition to plan for one type of attack. He is too small to take snaps from under Centre, even those championing him, admit that. Do I really want to overhaul my entire Offensive gameplan just to take a chance on some Pee Wee guy with a bucket load of talent? I also hate taking players with 1 year of production and wonder how well he'd do were he playing college ball this fall with all the opposition now having a year of tape. RGIII showed how that can go in the pro's. Just too much risk for me.
Completely agree arrogance is at times a necessity in a QB but I think too much of it can stop you from continuously improving. But his demeanour is speculative on my part, I agree with you about the one year thing and probably a better way to frame it in that he hasn't demonstrated he can keep getting better because he's only played Big 12 defences and only played them once. On his height, I'm with you in that I don't like measurables comps to prove potential success but I also don't think it proves potential failure, I think it means he'll be an exception to the rule and there won't be many exceptions so buyer beware. Don't get me wrong I like him on the field - will post a bit of my evaluation of him in another reply.

Interesting reading on Winovich and Oliver, you could see that possibly with Winovich but I also wonder whether there is some mischief in that quote with both of them candidates to slide and us only being two weeks out now.
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Old 10.04.2019, 02:03 PM
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RavenOggy RavenOggy is offline
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Kyler Murray eval extract:

He has ridiculous accuracy and his ball location can be, at times, nothing short of perfection. He has the arm to make all the throws. You would like to see a little less happy feet when in the pocket and a little more assured movement and pocket presence. Some more pro style schemes have confused him when faced at Oklahoma. He has a funky delivery but it does provide for a consistent and quick release which will help him at the next level. Although he didn’t struggle with passing lanes most of the season, it was interesting to see a batted ball against an SEC defensive line. The timing and touch on his throws is special. He throws exceptionally well on the run, deep as well, and unscripted but when he has to sit back in the pocket and read a defense he gets impatient and inconsistent with his feet and throwing motion. He can force it and make bad decisions when chasing a game, and he hasn’t been chasing a game that much.
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