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  #1  
Old 13.02.2011, 03:47 PM
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Default AFC East and AFC North Draft Needs

With the draft likely to be the first event of the off-season, I start to take a look at each team's needs. This week sees the AFC East and AFC North go under the microscope.

http://nfl203.blogspot.com/2011/02/d...afc-north.html

Any comments or disagreements feel free to shout at me here and I'll justify my decisions. Enjoy!
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Old 13.02.2011, 11:40 PM
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Good writeup disagree on a few things.

DE isn't the issue NT is. Kyle Williams is better suited playing 3-4 DE than he is NT. He had a good season at both positions but he can't eat up two blockers the way a NT needs to. Troup was drafted high in 2nd round last season to play NT but has a body better suited to play DE. Carrington drafted in the third round last season to play 3-4 DE gives Buffalo enough reason not to draft a 3-4 DE in the first 3 rounds again. THis franchise needs a big heavy takcle which at this point we are missing.

QB is a bigger issue. Chan Gaileys system is QB friendly, Fitzpatrick while solid and a winner (some might disagree with that but the guy has the right attitude) has a low ceiling for success. Any of the 4 QBs talked up as potential 1st rounders could have great success in this system it all depends if Buddy Nix likes their potential.

For me positon of need.

1.QB
2.OLB 3-4 / 4-3 DE
3.NT
4.ILB
5.CB
6.TE
7.DE 3-4
8.OG
9.WR
10.OT
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Old 14.02.2011, 09:47 AM
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Originally Posted by Goodfry View Post
Good writeup disagree on a few things.

DE isn't the issue NT is. Kyle Williams is better suited playing 3-4 DE than he is NT. He had a good season at both positions but he can't eat up two blockers the way a NT needs to. Troup was drafted high in 2nd round last season to play NT but has a body better suited to play DE. Carrington drafted in the third round last season to play 3-4 DE gives Buffalo enough reason not to draft a 3-4 DE in the first 3 rounds again. THis franchise needs a big heavy takcle which at this point we are missing.

QB is a bigger issue. Chan Gaileys system is QB friendly, Fitzpatrick while solid and a winner (some might disagree with that but the guy has the right attitude) has a low ceiling for success. Any of the 4 QBs talked up as potential 1st rounders could have great success in this system it all depends if Buddy Nix likes their potential.

For me positon of need.

1.QB
2.OLB 3-4 / 4-3 DE
3.NT
4.ILB
5.CB
6.TE
7.DE 3-4
8.OG
9.WR
10.OT
I personally think you would be better leaving QB to next year considering the bust potential of every single one of the QBs in this draft, or pick one up later in the draft. If one of the four was there in the second round maybe you jump on them then, but I don't think you would benefit from taking them. Fitzpatrick can hold the fort until next year when you're in a better position to go after one.
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Old 14.02.2011, 01:56 PM
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Every QB has bust potential coming in to the NFL.
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Old 14.02.2011, 02:03 PM
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Every QB has bust potential coming in to the NFL.
They do, but some have more than others, and almost all this year have more than you would like when you are picking at 3. There is no QB worth that pick. Of the four, if they fell into the second I'd take Locker, Newton and Mallett, not so sure on Gabbert even at that spot.
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Old 14.02.2011, 10:44 PM
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I personally wouldnt pick a quaterback this year. Maybe if one falls into the second round, but I wouldnt be looking at one in the first round. Dont think any of them are good enough for the 3rd overall pick/.
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Old 15.02.2011, 12:16 AM
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They do, but some have more than others, and almost all this year have more than you would like when you are picking at 3. There is no QB worth that pick. Of the four, if they fell into the second I'd take Locker, Newton and Mallett, not so sure on Gabbert even at that spot.
It's no sure thing that a QB will be there next season. This class on paper was much better than last seasons. It contained what was seen as a very good prospect in Jake Locker and Andrew Luck with some other solid talents. People were raving about Locker so many people wrote articles how it pays to be terrible to have the privilege to draft Locker. The same articles will be written about Luck this off season.

QB classes have been weak for the last 4 seasons on paper I would not bank my future on hoping a college kid can still look a top prospect after high expectations. Buffalo knows that they have rarely been in the position despite their mediocrity to draft a top QB prospect. Maybe they think now is the time to gamble. I am certain Gabert is being drafted in the top 8. He declared a season earlier than expected because it's likely a scout has told him he has the top QB grade now Luck is staying in school. Fans may not be able to put their finger on it but he must have something that gives him franchise QB potential.

Qbs have the biggest 1st round bust rate but they have a high pay off. For me Buffalo is in a good position to add a QB young offence with decent weapons, solid QB coach and is the right age to grow with the potential franchise QB. Think the bust rate on first round Qbs is about 33%. Three seasons down the line if you have drafted the wrong guy it becomes clear and it’s time to move on. In those three/four seasons while a bust QBs inept play sinks your franchise playoff hopes and you draft the next in the bottom 15 it gives your franchise plenty of opportunities to pick up the top prospects you passed while risking on a QB in the a “weak class”. If the QB succeeded your franchise succeeds. If we pick up a safer non QB position player who improves the team we improve our all round first team add a few more wins maybe and move away from next season’s top QB prospects and next season again keep the solid non franchise QB Fitzpatrick while not risking it on the weak QBs prospect that drop to the 10-20 draft range and pick another non- skill position moving us further way from the desired stud prospect.

Raphs old, Chan Gaileys old, Buddy Nix are old if they want to make an impact they are going to have to gamble on a high potential QB which every topend Qb is in this class they just have a high bust rate. Winning now and taking chances for me is what this front office will go for because the Jets, Patriots and even the Dolphins won't be caught in the next few seasons with out gambling on a QB in the next few seasons.

Last edited by Goodfry; 15.02.2011 at 12:20 AM.
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Old 15.02.2011, 10:07 AM
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Originally Posted by Goodfry View Post
It's no sure thing that a QB will be there next season. This class on paper was much better than last seasons. It contained what was seen as a very good prospect in Jake Locker and Andrew Luck with some other solid talents. People were raving about Locker so many people wrote articles how it pays to be terrible to have the privilege to draft Locker. The same articles will be written about Luck this off season.

QB classes have been weak for the last 4 seasons on paper I would not bank my future on hoping a college kid can still look a top prospect after high expectations. Buffalo knows that they have rarely been in the position despite their mediocrity to draft a top QB prospect. Maybe they think now is the time to gamble. I am certain Gabert is being drafted in the top 8. He declared a season earlier than expected because it's likely a scout has told him he has the top QB grade now Luck is staying in school. Fans may not be able to put their finger on it but he must have something that gives him franchise QB potential.

Qbs have the biggest 1st round bust rate but they have a high pay off. For me Buffalo is in a good position to add a QB young offence with decent weapons, solid QB coach and is the right age to grow with the potential franchise QB. Think the bust rate on first round Qbs is about 33%. Three seasons down the line if you have drafted the wrong guy it becomes clear and it’s time to move on. In those three/four seasons while a bust QBs inept play sinks your franchise playoff hopes and you draft the next in the bottom 15 it gives your franchise plenty of opportunities to pick up the top prospects you passed while risking on a QB in the a “weak class”. If the QB succeeded your franchise succeeds. If we pick up a safer non QB position player who improves the team we improve our all round first team add a few more wins maybe and move away from next season’s top QB prospects and next season again keep the solid non franchise QB Fitzpatrick while not risking it on the weak QBs prospect that drop to the 10-20 draft range and pick another non- skill position moving us further way from the desired stud prospect.

Raphs old, Chan Gaileys old, Buddy Nix are old if they want to make an impact they are going to have to gamble on a high potential QB which every topend Qb is in this class they just have a high bust rate. Winning now and taking chances for me is what this front office will go for because the Jets, Patriots and even the Dolphins won't be caught in the next few seasons with out gambling on a QB in the next few seasons.
I understand your point, but there is just no way you could draft a QB at three overall. The value there is terrible. If one fell low into the first maybe you could trade up, but no way should any of these guys be going at three overall.
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Old 15.02.2011, 04:38 PM
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I understand your point, but there is just no way you could draft a QB at three overall. The value there is terrible. If one fell low into the first maybe you could trade up, but no way should any of these guys be going at three overall.
If a rookie salary cap is in place by then (big if) then the pick has to be QB. Draft a guy bench him for a few seasons have 10 million commited to him on the bench as opposed to 50 million which pretty much forces a franchise to rush a player into the starting lineup. Develop his skill set on the training field and out comes with good coaching.

I do kind of agree with you on value but it all depends if one QB seperates him self from the rest as of now i don't think the difference between Gabbert, Locker and Newton is huge and at least one of them will drop to the 2nd round.
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Old 15.02.2011, 07:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Goodfry View Post
If a rookie salary cap is in place by then (big if) then the pick has to be QB. Draft a guy bench him for a few seasons have 10 million commited to him on the bench as opposed to 50 million which pretty much forces a franchise to rush a player into the starting lineup. Develop his skill set on the training field and out comes with good coaching.

I do kind of agree with you on value but it all depends if one QB seperates him self from the rest as of now i don't think the difference between Gabbert, Locker and Newton is huge and at least one of them will drop to the 2nd round.
If they drop to the second round then take them, but not in the first. I'd happily see the Bengals take one in the second round, but not in the first. No chance.
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