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Old 14.07.2017, 11:10 AM
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Default Kirk Cousins

Just wondered what everyone's take on the possibility of Cousins playing out the Franchise tag again?

What is it that Washington see that stops them tying him up to a long term deal or is he asking for too much money?
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Old 14.07.2017, 11:50 AM
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I don't see why they haven't tied him to a long term deal already. The QB market, like all positions, is only getting more costly. $21m a couple of years ago is now $25m. That said, I think he earned just shy of $20m under the tag last season, and will earn just under $24m this season if tagged again. So $44m over 2 years, that's probably what he would have got in guaranteed money on a long term deal anyway. So from that standpoint it's made no difference to the Redskins and means Cousins has to continue to 'prove himself'.

He has proved to be a success in the Redskins system, and Gruden is still the HC, so I can only think someone has a 'grass is greener' view of the QB position. Either that or they think the 'QB on a cheap rookie deal' is the best formula for success and are just waiting for the right one to fall to them in the draft.
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Old 14.07.2017, 11:54 AM
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It would appear that Washington believe that a significant amount of Cousins success is due to the system and his supporting cast opposed to his level of play.

Whether this is true rather depends on how you interpret his play and how much emphasis you put on stats. Certainly his 67% passing accuracy on 606 attempts (both 6th in the league for players with over 300 attempts) shows a player making good decisions.

However his touchdown to interception levels are below par for his attempts and accuracy (25 to 12). Especially when compared to many others with relatively equal numbers but with 75-100 less attempts

Help from his supporting cast also seems to be substantiated. He was only sacked 23 times on 606 drop backs. Only the Raiders, Steelers, Patriots and Giants had a better average of drop backs to sacks.

You have to ask how many other QBs would have had better numbers with that type of protection. Yet we also know how hard it is to get a top QB. It really is a bit of a quandary.
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Old 14.07.2017, 01:40 PM
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About time this had a thread. Good job.

This is honestly one of the most unusual contract situations you'll ever see. Cousins has them over a number of barrels. I think it's very difficult to see them keeping him beyond 2018. I say 2018, because I suspect they will have to tag him again after the season. At the absolute least they'll use the Transition Tag ($28m), but I think that there's every chance they Franchise Tag him ($35m).

I think it's hard to say the Redskins don't rate him. Because they've paid him large sums of money already. I think they just reality is that they screwed up by being unwilling to meet his expectations the first time around. With the amounts he stands to make, and the quality of his play over the past two years there's no incentive for Cousins to sign long-term and the Redskins have to a poor job of demonstrating that they even want him to. It's strange.

When you look at the reality of QB contracts it's clear that if you are above a certain level you will set the market. It's the old question of "how easy would it be to replace you" Alex Smith, Jay Cutler, Joe Flacco are around that level, imo. And Cousins' play has been significantly better than that. The Skins seem to want to pay him base on his ability within a ranking like "12th best QB" but it just doesn't work that way.

Carr got on average $25m, and he wanted to be there. Stafford will likely get between $26-28m you'd think, depending on how much he wants to help the team, maybe less - but looking at how he fleeced the Lions for years I doubt that! So it's not going to be long until the first $30m per year long-term deal is out there.

One other thing to keep in mind, is that I think everyone has a warped perception of how easy it is to find good QB play. Cousins, is by any sensible metric the best they've had since Theismann. That's 30 years! You don't let that walk.

It seems to me that if Cousins just keeps going as he is, he'll make a fortune in either 2017 or 2018. I don't buy the notion he signs with the 49ers. Unless they are good. He'd have a whole load of options should he be permitted to walk.
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Old 14.07.2017, 01:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FallenFlyer View Post
It would appear that Washington believe that a significant amount of Cousins success is due to the system and his supporting cast opposed to his level of play.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichardCunliffe View Post
He has proved to be a success in the Redskins system
I think this is interesting. And not because I think you're saying something wrong per se. But nobody would be making this point had Cousins been a First Round Pick.

He's massively outperformed Jamies Winston and Marcus Mariota, for example, over the past two years. Yet in spite of Winston showing no growth in his ability to avoid mental errors, and Mariota to find consistency, we see both teams as contenders, and both as "breakout players" who needed "weapons".

Conversely, Cousins success is McVay's scheme is an interesting question. McVay being gone, well know soon enough. But I don't think anyone, three years ago was telling you that McVay or Gruden we especially great coaches. In fact I recall Gruden being laughed at by Around the NFL. And lots of nepotism accusations.

Furthermore, We're all supposed to think Pierre Garcon was a factor? Or that his arm was made by DeSean Jackson? They had no rushing offence to speak of, and mediocre defence. I really don't know what Cousins has to do to earn so love in the media, to be honest. I think he's just really good.
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Old 14.07.2017, 02:00 PM
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Yeah, it seems odd to pay your 'system QB' $44m. Why not just hand the reins over to Colt McCoy and see if he can make the system work.

The Redskins front office has been all over the shop in recent times though, which can't help. Doug Williams is more in the mix now so perhaps that might change things.

All signs point to him moving on in 2018 regardless.
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Old 14.07.2017, 02:10 PM
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To begin with I thought the Redskins 'wait and see' policy was the correct one. The way the QB market is now, it was likely they would have to pay Cousins north of $20million a year and frankly I am not convinced he is worth that. I personally don't see him as a top QB. He's ok, and he's certainly an NFL starting calibre QB, but paying him in the region of $23-24million a year would make me baulk a bit. Especially if you're looking at it from the position of twelve to twenty four months ago. So I get why the Redskins wanted to 'try before you buy' so to speak.

The problem is they have got themselves in a right pickle now by continually franchise tagging him. I believe if they put the tag on Cousins again next year they would have to pay him around $34million for next season! They cannot possibly do that, surely? Barring injury, the big winner here is Cousins. He's made a fortune over the past 2-3 seasons, more money than his ability really deserves, and he'll make a lot more whatever happens next off season.

A bit like Joe Flacco did by winning the Superbowl right at the time when his contract was up for renewal, Cousins has played this situation perfectly.

Last edited by Corvus corax; 14.07.2017 at 02:13 PM.
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Old 14.07.2017, 02:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Corvus corax View Post
To begin with I thought the Redskins 'wait and see' policy was the correct one. The way the QB market is now, it was likely they would have to pay Cousins north of $20million a year and frankly I am not convinced he is worth that. I personally don't see him as a top QB. He's ok, and he's certainly an NFL starting calibre QB, but paying him in the region of $23-24million a year would make me baulk a bit. Especially if you're looking at it from the position of twelve to twenty four months ago. So I get why the Redskins wanted to 'try before you buy' so to speak.

The problem is they have got themselves in a right pickle now by continually franchise tagging him. I believe if they put the tag on Cousins again next year they would have to pay him around $34million dollars for next season! They cannot possibly do that, surely? Barring injury, the big winner here is Cousins. He's made a fortune over the past 2-3 seasons, more money than his ability really deserves, and he'll make a lot more whatever happens next off season.

A bit like Joe Flacco did by winning the Superbowl right at the time when his contract was up for renewal, Cousins has played this situation perfectly.
I'm curious why you think he lacks ability? He was a top 10 QB in my mind last year. And very goo the previous season too. My only real criticism of his play is he's a bit indecisive in the Red Zone.

I mean, you either pay QBs, or move on. There's rarely value for money. and any deal signed now will look average in a few years time.

The only deal i criticise is the Flacco deal. Because they paid him for his playoff run, and not his mean level. And then compounded it with numerous restructures that pushed the issue down the road.
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Old 14.07.2017, 02:18 PM
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Is it better to have a mediocre QB on a huge contract, or get a few more positions of need with that money, then look for a cheaper option/go for a new one in the draft?.

Franchises seem pretty scared of losing QB's that they have no hope of big success with.

I am very happy the Eagles took a punt on Wentz, rather than meander along with Bradford. If it doesn't work no biggy, bradfords contract is off the books.

But the teams are hugely profitable, so giving Cousin's a big contract doesn't hurt them financially. It just seems unambitious.

Or maybe I'm being harsh on Kirk.
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Old 14.07.2017, 02:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RockyBalboa View Post
Is it better to have a mediocre QB on a huge contract, or get a few more positions of need with that money, then look for a cheaper option/go for a new one in the draft?.

Franchises seem pretty scared of losing QB's that they have no hope of big success with.

I am very happy the Eagles took a punt on Wentz, rather than meander along with Bradford. If it doesn't work no biggy, bradfords contract is off the books.

But the teams are hugely profitable, so giving Cousin's a big contract doesn't hurt them financially. It just seems unambitious.

Or maybe I'm being harsh on Kirk.
The answer is you meander along forever with average QB play, until you get a chance to draft a guy you like more. The Eagles got that, and made their move. The Chiefs have this year too. But some teams are solid enough that they never are forced to move on. Like Baltimore, Chicago up until last year, etc.

Regardless, Cousins has been anything but mediocre.

There is a line, of course. Bradford is around that line. As is Alex Smith.

Smith works because as Jim Harbaugh realised, you build a great D, strong O-line and rushing offence. But he can't take the lid of the opposition D - that's a limiting factor. So they took a flyer on Kaep, because he could hit the down field ball. He's proven to be worse than Smith. But I get why they tried it out.
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